时间:2024-04-09|浏览:280
用戶喜愛的交易所
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保罗·维拉迪塔基特
编译:区块独角兽
今天的区块链正在接近“足够好”的阶段。
每笔交易的交易成本已降至 0.01 美元以下,EIP-4844 之后的 Solana、Avax、Sei、Sui 和 L2 均有望实现这一目标。链上吞吐量可能就足够了,许多区块链声称每秒处理 10-50K+ 交易(TPS),但这只会在达到 TPS 限制时成为一个因素,而在未来 3-5 年内可能不会出现。现在,通过账户抽象和 Rabby、Zerion 和 Backpack 等钱包,通向更好用户体验的道路变得清晰可见。
对于新的L1和L2层,已经很难找到差异化了。达到这些基本门槛要求后,一切都变成了注意力的竞争和“追随者”的社区。最好的例子是宗教,它是强大的追随者社区的典范。
对于新的一层(L1)和二层(L2),已经很难找到差异化。 在实现了这些基本的人口要求后,一切都变成了争夺关注和「追随者」社群的竞争。
那么,我们怎样才能成为下一个宗教呢?我们怎样才能成为下一个BTC/ETH/SOL?
每个宗教都需要一个领袖
没有人知道ETH有一个天才少年Vitalik,他的博文被视为圣经。 SOL 有 Anatoly,他每天在 Twitter 上与 ETH 极客争论。
这里最好的例子可能是最臭名昭著的 LUNA,一个有争议的邪教领袖,名叫 Do Kwon 或 DK(RIP),他嘲笑每一个反对者。卡尔达诺(ADA)是另一个很好的例子,他每周从阳光明媚的科罗拉多州进行几次直播。
区块链的领袖们已经成为传奇人物,他们以白皮书的形式传递着这种思想和对未来发展的描述。当这些传奇人物或领袖去世时,意识形态就会变得更加强大。中本聪“死了”,但 BTC 的意识形态比以往任何时候都更强大。如果 Vitalik 去世,ETH 将仍然存在并作为去中心化世界计算机蓬勃发展。
我发现像大玩家这样的项目有一个问题,那就是没有一个可以崇拜或依赖的核心人物。这也是ETH第二层(L2)陷入困境的原因。他们依赖 ETH 的神话,但却是现有宗教的追随者。因此,我认为ETH L2仍然需要Base x Coinbase等中心化交易所的强力营销,因为他们的社区不会像L1那么强大。
每个宗教都需要濒死时刻和复活
耶稣被钉在十字架上,但从死里复活了。 BTC 在 Mt Gox 黑客事件中一度濒临死亡,但随后奇迹般地东山再起。在 The DAO 黑客攻击中,ETH 有 14% 的 ETH 被锁定在合约中(请阅读《谁偷走了以太坊 110 亿美元?》中有关这次黑客攻击的内容),然后社区提议分叉一条新的 ETH 链,该链很快恢复并变得更强。 SOL 与 FTX 联系紧密,当 FTX 下跌时,SOL 从 35 美元跌至 9 美元,人们将它们视为下一个 LUNA。然而,现在我们看到它的复苏。
摆脱一场濒临死亡的遭遇,除了最忠实的支持者之外,所有的人都被消灭了,这也构成了你最铁杆追随者的基础。
LUNA fell, but never came back (but still has “Luna Classic” enthusiasts). FTM also fell, but it lacked a mythical figure who looked more like Andre Cronje (AC) than Michael Kong (CEO of FTM). Fortunately, other chains (unfortunately) have not yet suffered a near-death blow, as many of them are still too new, including the second layer (L2).
Make early believers rich, such as increasing their wealth a hundredfold
Price increases are the best business development strategy, you make people rich and they become your biggest supporters. Bitcoin grew over 200x between 2013 and 2018 for its early adopters, forming its core following. Ethereum grew about 40x between 2020 and 2022, making its ICO backers rich, a diverse group who chose Ethereum over hundreds of other ICO projects.
On the other hand, SOL is up ~100x in the last cycle, but most of it is held by VCs rather than the community, so it doesn't have as much grassroots influence as ETH. Unexpected airdrops like JTO and PYTH enrich the Solana community, where those who staked 1 SOL received $10,000 in JTO. They make the little people who can only afford 1 SOL rich, instead of distributing it based on the amount of SOL staked, which favors the rich. Note that most airdrops (or points for that matter) do not enrich the community, only unexpected airdrops do.
During the bear market, L2’s ARB and OP also had quite successful airdrops. This is clearly a positive feedback loop, where rising prices attract more enthusiastic supporters and attention, which in turn leads to another rise in prices.
From now on, I will be looking at how TIA can leverage the momentum from the airdrop and the subsequent 10x price action. Early Celestia developers can now get about $200k in airdrops. On the other hand, SEI screwed up their airdrop and lost early community members, but is now slowly rebuilding it. Aptos and Sui are also venture capital chains, so need a great airdrop strategy to win organic community support.
Building religious communities using memes and unique identifiers
You need memes that spread quickly and easily, even with monetary incentives. You need inside jokes so people feel like they belong to an exclusive club. You need people to blindly support a “greater cause” because they feel like they belong.
Nothing illustrates this better than the “laser eye” BTC geeks. For Ethereum, there are “.eth” X names. With SOL, people would use “◎” or “.sol” — the way Solana is played, not many people use it. But now BONK, dogwifhat, Popcat, etc. lead the Solana culture. You also have 0xmert who basically lives on X and laughs at every Ethereum geek. AVAX has “” X names, while OP and ARB use and instead.
Memes must grow naturally from the community, you can't force memes on the community. You can't just add an "Inu" to the end of the token and think it's a successful project (because Shiba Inu has the suffix Inu, many meme coins also add Inu to the end of their names, thinking they are successful memes). For example, "Solana inu" didn't become popular, but $BONK and $WIF did. The Base community performed surprisingly well on $BALD, which was original and a little interesting, but unfortunately ended up being a scam.
You need a charismatic leader with a strong narrative to kickstart the flywheel and lay the foundation for your followers. Then it becomes a positive feedback loop: early community → memes and culture → price increase → more community → more memes → price increase → more community.
The closest thing to a "religious community" I've seen outside of the profession is Berachain. These people just understand crypto humor and community. SEI has done quite well with multiple "Sei" puns, for example the $SEIYAN community even launched an ecosystem fund. Sui and Aptos lack in this regard, but I'm sure these will follow as the number increases.
A simple narrative or one-line dialogue as a rallying cry
To spread your religion, you need a simple sentence to sell it. BTC is "digital gold" and ETH is "the world computer". SOL is "parallel processing" or "ETH killer". Recently, some strong statements have emerged - "modular blockchain" led by Celestia, and "parallel EVM" by SEI and Monad.
It’s much easier to tell people you have a “parallel EVM” (still an EVM, but the chain runs faster) than to tell them EIP-4844 will reduce the data cost of Ethereum Rollups by introducing blobs submitted via KZG.
Summarize
The success of blockchain comes down to a strong community. A community of developers, speculators, and users. And the strongest community is religion.
With over 240 L1/L2s and only a handful of original applications, blockchain faces stiff competition for attention. Technology is no longer a differentiator. There’s a reason Blast doesn’t talk much about their tech stack (no one cares) and focuses on their community and yield.
I wrote this post because everyone loves to speculate on L1/L2 because there is a market premium (and it’s also the easiest narrative to understand when “investing in blockchain technology”). But I actually prefer to talk about real-world use cases.
So which L1/L2 will be the largest religions in the next cycle?