Understanding Long and Short Positions

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For the grasp of long and short positions, we cannot just look at the price trend, but we still need to understand the logic. This is not to find reasons for the rise and fall, but whether the rise and fall of the information will be repaired with understanding.

At present, BTC itself has not changed. The impact of the halving cycle and the US election is not yet time, so the only thing that can affect the currency price is either a black swan or macro sentiment.

Now Japan's interest rate hike has long passed, and what remains is the Fed's interest rate cut. We have analyzed defensive interest rate cuts and post-mortem interest rate cuts many times. This is bound to be a pit, but this pit is expected to start in the second half of 2024. If the Fed still does not cut interest rates for the first time in July, the market reaction may be more intense.

Now there will definitely be no interest rate cuts in May, and the probability of interest rate cuts in June is very low. The remaining months are July, September, November and December. If the Fed cuts interest rates twice or three times, the first time should be implemented in July at the earliest and September at the latest.

As for the price of BTC itself, I have made it very clear that investors can no longer surrender more chips by dumping the market. Now, on average, the stock price of BTC in the exchange has refreshed the lowest storage volume of BTC in the past six years four or five times, which means that only a few investors who bought BTC will sell it.

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