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Core focus: Why are everyone saying there will be a big correction in June?
First of all, are you very confused and have not seen the specific logic of the callback after June?
Today, I will give you a detailed analysis from multiple dimensions!
In fact, it is a very simple logic, do you know the conditional factors for judging the market?
All market trends must be driven by various conditions, simplify the complex, clarify ideas, and respond to position operations, so that we can seize wave after wave of trending markets.
If the conditions are relatively flat in both directions, then the market will be very tangled and fluctuate a little more. Wait for the conditions of one side to gradually become more advantageous before it starts!
1. Macro factors:
The U.S. dollar index has rebounded sharply recently, breaking through the weekly suppression line. Therefore, there are many voices in the market pointing to the first interest rate cut at the June FOMC meeting in the United States. The probability of an interest rate cut is relatively high. Core institutions predict that interest rates will be cut by at least 25% in June. The probability of a rate cut is about 76 basis points, and the market generally expects that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July or before is close to 90%
According to past market logic, the risk market will have a downward correction trend after the interest rate cut is implemented and in the early stage, which is a normal state in which market expectations are digested in advance and return to normal market valuation ratios.
Examples of correlation with crypto markets:
I still remember that August 1, 2019, was the first time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in many years. Prior to that, in line with macro expectations, the crypto market had already experienced a wave of market trends. After the interest rate cut was implemented, the market should have experienced a wave of correction in Bitcoin. It dropped from more than 10,000 u to more than 6,000 u!
On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates for the first time this year. However, under the expectation of interest rate cut and halving in March 2020, Bitcoin rebounded from more than 6,000 to 10,000 U. After the interest rate cut on March 3, the market A correction occurred, and everyone was deeply impressed by 312. The emergence of the epidemic deepened the magnitude of this correction. Subsequently, after a large amount of water was released as a basis, the market slowly moved forward.
2. Technical factors:
We can look at the trend analysis chart below. Bitcoin has been rising continuously on a monthly basis, and there has been no major correction so far. In June this year, the price of the long-term rising suppression line was around 100,000 US dollars.
3. Emotional factors:
The significance of Bitcoin's 100,000 USD mark is far greater than that of reaching 10,000 USD for the first time that year. In particular, the spread of retail investor sentiment FOMO is faster and more powerful than all previous Bitcoin integer thresholds and all-time highs. Much bigger!
By then, we will see countless exchanges posting Bitcoin price posters, all industry practitioners and people in the crypto market posting on WeChat Moments, the media will also publicize the news on various social platforms, and hot searches will continue.
US$100,000 is also very close to the predicted 120,000 US dollars, but I think it will still reach 120,000 US dollars and above after the interest rate cut.
4. Narrative factors:
Cancun upgrade, Bitcoin halving, interest rate cuts, and the launch of Ethereum ETF all occurred in June and before. After June, there is a high probability that only the news of the entry of Ethereum ETF funds will be seen for the time being, and other market narratives have not yet been seen. .
The above is the reason why it is said that the encryption market will have a major correction after June!
So no matter what happens, first of all, the goal remains unchanged. If the big pie is not in place, it will not go away. If it continues to rise in the past few months, before June, we will consider clearing out some copycats and adding positions to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bull market During this period, chips are king.
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