时间：2024-03-22|浏览：236
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Mini Program: Daily review of investment bank/institutional views
1. Citi: Russia’s oil production will increase in the future despite risks
Citi analysts expect Russian oil production to increase in the coming years despite risks such as Western sanctions, OPEC+ production cuts and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. "We believe the market has underestimated the Russian oil industry's ability to defy pessimistic expectations and thrive," they said in the report. "In our view, its long-term growth potential is real, with daily oil production expected to rise by 2025." An increase of about 150,000 to 280,000 barrels, depending on whether there are delays." Overall production, including Siberia's Vostok project, appears on track to remain stable or even increase through 2030, they added, and future growth could lead to Russia's renewed Consider its stance on OPEC+ production cuts.
2. BlackRock: Fed hints neutral interest rates will be higher
Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of BlackRock, said the Fed's policy implicitly endorses a higher neutral interest rate as inflation remains stagnant amid continued supply constraints. The former SNB chief said inflation was slowing and could hit 2%, but the question was where services sector inflation would stabilize. "In the long term, the inflation path and the interest rate path will be stalemate. We will probably see a higher neutral interest rate level. The inflation data for the next two years will be slightly upward, and that is what really matters." In addition, Asked about gold's jump to new highs, Hildebrand said it had more to do with "the risks and uncertainties implicit in the global economy" than any monetary policy decision.
3. Societe Generale: Raise the year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,500 points
Societe Generale strategists raised their target for the S&P 500 at the end of 2024 from 4,750 points to 5,500 points, saying that American exceptionalism is becoming stronger. Strategists Manish Kabra and Charles de Boissezon believe that the boom in artificial intelligence and improving credit conditions are macro themes that continue to boost U.S. stocks. The bank also upgraded the U.S. financial rating for the first time since December 2021. Analysts raised their 2024 earnings per share growth forecast from 5% to 12%, to $243, and lowered their 2025 earnings per share growth forecast from 15% to 11%, to $270. They also believe that stocks have already experienced their best returns, but the market may not depreciate until the Fed starts raising interest rates or profits start to slow, neither of which will happen in 2024.
4. TD Securities: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in June, previously expected to be in May
Strategists at TD Securities have revised their forecasts for the Fed to cut interest rates. They now expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June and cut interest rates four times during the year, by 25 basis points each time. Previously, they expected to start cutting interest rates five times in May. “Barring meaningful dovish surprises in employment and inflation data, the Fed is unlikely to meet their inflation targets at the May meeting,” strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg wrote in a note following the FOMC meeting. Expect confidence." "An important reason why we expect a rate cut in June is that we expect core PCE to be back on track to normalize on a monthly basis by the June meeting." TD Securities expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year and 125 basis points in 2025. basis points, and the Fed is expected to reach a neutral policy stance of 2.75%-3.00% in the first quarter of 2026.
5. Capital Economics: As inflation cools, the Bank of England appears ready to adopt dovish policies
Ruth Gregory, an economist at Capital Economics, said the Bank of England may take a more open approach to cutting interest rates. Previously, the Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates at their current high levels. Gregory said in a report that this decision was in line with expectations. It is worth noting that no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for further interest rate increases this time. With inflation set to continue falling in the coming months, the Bank of England may start to signal that it is more willing to ease monetary policy by cutting interest rates. "It is possible that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in June," she said.
6. Mizuho Bank: The Bank of England’s decision is in line with expectations and it is still most likely to cut interest rates in August.
Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho Bank, said the progress of the meeting was basically in line with expectations. The shift in voting was dovish, but not particularly dovish. There seems to be no clear divergence at the moment, with many mentioning the persistence of inflation (and today's PMI data did not help in this regard). Barring adverse circumstances, a rate cut in May seems unlikely. June is possible, but we still think August is the most likely date at this time.
7. ING: The Bank of England is unlikely to be in a hurry to cut interest rates
James Smith, an economist at ING Bank, said in a report that despite the steady slowdown in inflation, the Bank of England may not cut interest rates immediately. The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% and maintained its guidance to maintain restrictive interest rates for an extended period of time. Smith said this suggests a rate cut in May is unlikely. He noted that April's inflation data may be volatile due to seasonal reasons. "The Bank of England will have more clarity at its June meeting, which we think is the first meeting where a rate cut is really likely." He added that an August rate cut was more likely.
8. ING: The European Central Bank will be encouraged by the services PMI
ING economist Bert Colijn wrote in a report that as a possible rate cut in June approaches, the European Central Bank may be encouraged by the lack of further acceleration in services inflation in the euro zone. PMI data released on Thursday showed that service industry cost growth in March was the slowest in four months. Continued strong increases in service prices have led the European Central Bank to be cautious about cutting interest rates. The data "will therefore be seen as an encouraging sign that price pressures are not currently accelerating further, which could be an obstacle to a rate cut in June".
9. Pantheon Macro: German PMI index points to recession
Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macro, wrote that despite some signs of recovery in German private sector activity, the economy is likely to slip into recession in the first months of 2024. Driven by a further rebound in the service sector, the country's comprehensive PMI rose slightly in March. But Vistesen wrote in a report that the data showed a deeper slowdown in manufacturing, with the overall reading still consistent with a further decline in the broader economy in the first quarter of 2024, pushing Germany into a technical recession.
10. Capital Economics: The Swiss National Bank may cut interest rates twice more this year
Adrian Pretejohn, European economist at Capital Economics, said in a report that the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% when most people expect interest rates to remain unchanged, and may cut interest rates twice more in September and December. "With the SNB sounding more dovish and inflation likely to be lower than it expects, we still expect two more rate cuts this year." That would take the policy rate to 1% by the end of the year. Capital Economics expects policy rates to remain at this level through 2025 and 2026. He said policymakers emphasized greater certainty that inflation would remain within acceptable limits.
11. ING Bank: The Swiss National Bank’s lowering of inflation expectations increases the possibility of an interest rate cut in June
ING economists said in a report that unless unexpected events lead to new inflationary pressures, the Swiss National Bank is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate again to 1.25% in June. The Swiss National Bank's latest downward revision of its inflation forecast further proves this point. Economists added that the euro rose against the Swiss franc on the back of interest rate cuts, but the future extent will depend on how quickly the European Central Bank follows up on rate cuts.
12. Rabobank: The Swiss franc is still overvalued and may continue to weaken
Jane Foley, senior foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank, said in a report that the Swiss franc may continue to weaken after the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50%. Although the Swiss franc has fallen so far in 2024, it is still overvalued. Rabobank now predicts EUR/CHF will rise to 0.98 in 3 months, instead of the previous 6 months. Foley said the Swiss franc is the second-worst performing G10 currency this year, after the Japanese yen, masking the fact that the Swiss franc will be the best performer in 2023. "The Swiss franc remains fundamentally overvalued from a modeling perspective."
Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data
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