时间：2024-03-09|浏览：215
用戶喜愛的交易所
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In the past week, with Powell agreeing on Capitol Hill that interest rates will be cut this year, and with non-farm data starting to fall back on Friday, the swap market has fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Gold has risen strongly for 8 days in a row, and has continued to hit new highs. It soared by more than 100 US dollars in a single week, and once pointed at the 2,200 US dollars mark. The U.S. index has closed negative for three consecutive weeks, hitting as low as 102.39.
Next, Wall Street will prepare for a very critical piece of data, namely the U.S. CPI in February. After the CPI unexpectedly "exploded" in January, if this data continues to be strong, it may affect investors' expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In addition, Thursday’s “horror data” is also worthy of attention and may reveal a big question for many people in the market: Has the so-called “strongest pillar of the U.S. economy” stalled?
The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all Beijing time):
Central Bank News: Is a rate cut in June a certainty? Some gold bulls are starting to leave the market
The Federal Reserve has entered a "silence period" and no officials have spoken this week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remained cautious on the outlook for inflation in testimony before Congress this week. While he hinted that a rate cut could come later this year, he was reluctant to become more vague on the possible timing, a sign that the Fed has reservations about how quickly inflation will fall.
However, this did not stop investors from cheering for the prospect of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Powell's statement that "the time to start cutting interest rates is not far away" triggered a market frenzy, which basically priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in June and the U.S. Expectations of a soft landing for the economy.
Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at CBOE Global Markets, said, "Powell stuck to the script and he conveyed what the market was expecting, which was that the Fed was taking a prudent approach to potential rate cuts. In fact, he didn't sound like it. He didn't get tougher, he didn't change his tone, and that's a bullish sign."
In addition, U.S. President Biden predicts that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. "I can't guarantee that," he said. "But I would be willing to bet that rates will fall even more." However, Biden did not specify when he thought the rate cuts might begin.
For gold, the scale and speed of the recent rally has caught many seasoned market watchers off guard, who believe there are no obvious catalysts for the rally other than long-term support. Gold's wild rise this month has led some analysts to conclude that new major buyers are entering the market, such as investment funds making bold bets on the global macroeconomic outlook.
Even before gold prices hit record highs earlier this month, hedge funds and money managers were already accumulating bullish positions in gold. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that net long positions in U.S. gold futures and options surged 93% in the week ended March 5, reaching the highest level in two months.
"We expect gold prices to move higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to provide support amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. election," ING Groep commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said in a note. Gold tends to become more attractive during periods of instability, when investors flock to safe-haven assets to hedge against economic climate, geopolitical tensions or inflation. "
However, given that gold has surged too much, TD Securities announced profit-taking on a month-long tactical long trade in gold, with a profit of 7%. Because while gold prices can rise further from current levels, they will face greater volatility. Chris Vecchio, head of futures and FX at Tastylive.com, also said he was taking a break from trading because he believed the market needed some time to "breathe." He said, "While this is just the beginning of the rise in gold prices, it is important to seize the opportunity to take profits. Everyone is talking about gold prices hitting record highs in U.S. dollars, but gold prices are also hitting record highs in every other currency." .So this is not just a dollar story, this is a global issue."
Important data: CPI data is expected to continue to be "mixed", and the weakening of the US dollar still needs the Fed's "nod"
At 7:50 on Monday, Japan’s revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter
Monday 23:00, US February New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast
On Tuesday, OPEC will publish its monthly crude oil market report
At 15:00 on Tuesday, the final monthly CPI rate in Germany in February, the ILO unemployment rate in the three months of January in the UK, the unemployment rate in the UK in February, and the number of unemployment benefits applicants in the UK in February
Tuesday 18:00, US February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index
Tuesday at 20:30, US CPI data for February
At 0:00 on Wednesday, EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report
Japan's largest companies hold talks with unions on Wednesday over wage increases
At 15:00 on Wednesday, UK January three-month GDP monthly rate, UK January manufacturing output monthly rate, UK January seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account, UK January industrial output monthly rate
At 22:30 on Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to March 8
At 17:30 on Thursday, the IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to March 9, the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in February, and the U.S. PPI data in February
Thursday 22:00, US January business inventories monthly rate
Friday 15:45, French February CPI data
At 20:30 on Friday, Canadian January wholesale sales monthly rate, US New York Fed manufacturing index in March, US February import price index monthly rate
Friday 21:15, US February industrial output monthly rate
Friday 22:00, US March one-year inflation rate forecast, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value
Because the Federal Reserve will not hold its next policy decision meeting until March 20, with the release of the non-farm payrolls report, market attention will focus on the February CPI data released on Tuesday.
There has been good news and bad news recently regarding U.S. inflation: overall CPI has been stubbornly staying above 3.0%, while core CPI is close to 4.0%. While some comfort came from core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, which slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in January, the six-month annualized rate of the indicator has edged up to 2.5% from 1.9%.
Some economists predict that February CPI may be another mixed data. It is expected that the year-on-year CP growth rate I in February will remain unchanged at 3.1%, while the month-on-month growth rate will rise slightly to 0.4%. However, core indicators excluding food and energy prices are likely to see some relief, with core CPI growth expected to fall to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.9%.
The services portion of the CPI, which excludes housing costs, will also be watched as it rose 3.6% in January, which is a real setback for the Fed, which wants to see that number come down. Thursday's PPI data will also be crucial ahead of the March meeting.
Jeff Schulze, head of economics and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, wrote:
"Continued normalization of wages, coupled with soft CPI data, may increase the FOMC's confidence that inflation will return to target, which may promote the prospect of rate cuts."
The "horror data" due to be released on Thursday will be equally important. U.S. consumers experienced a period of weakness in January, so some level of rebound in February is critical to maintaining this Goldilocks scenario. The latest retail sales figures released on Thursday are also expected to confirm this. Retail sales are expected to rebound 0.3% in February after falling 0.8% month-on-month in January.
In addition, the United States will also release the New York State manufacturing index, industrial production and the University of Michigan's initial March consumer confidence value on Friday.
For the dollar, the main risk is an unexpected upside in CPI data, which could cast doubt on investors about a rate cut in June. If the CPI data overheats, it will be damaging to risk assets but positive for the dollar. The dollar has been weak since mid-February and is in desperate need of a boost. In addition to the data, a series of Treasury bond auctions could also inject some volatility into bond, currency and stock markets.
Despite the greenback suffering its worst sell-off this year, Wall Street isn't ready to go all-out bearish on the greenback.
Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London, said, “The sell-off in the U.S. dollar may have been overdone,
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