场外交易每周交易洞察 (02/29/2024) 

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• 本周，柴犬 ($SHIB) 是社交媒体上最受欢迎的硬币之一。

  SHIB价格自2月26日以来上涨387%，至3月5日为0.00004567，为两年来最高。

  SHIB价格的抛物线走势也带来了对该代币的大量交易需求。

  现在，按市值计算，SHIB 排名第 11 位，超越 Chainlink ($LINK) 和 Uniswap ($UNI)，比狗狗币 ($DOGE) 低一位。

• 此外，SHIB 的炒作还蔓延到了其他以狗为主题的代币，包括 Floki ($FLOKI)。

  Floki 经历了令人兴奋的一周，从 2 月 26 日到 3 月 4 日，一周内上涨了 400%。在社区支持的一项销毁 2% 代币供应量的提案之后，价格飙升。

  销毁代币的提议得到了社区的压倒性支持，近 90% 的选票支持该举措。

• 随着 meme 币令人难以置信的价格走势，ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) 也加入了这个行列。

  PEOPLE 的价格从 2 月 26 日开始上涨，今天 BTC 价格达到 69,000 美元的历史新高，涨幅达 125%。

整体市场

• 上图显示了自 2024 年 1 月底以来的 BTC 价格走势。

• 今日现货市场BTC触及69,000 USDT历史新高！

• 2021 年 11 月 10 日 BTC 价格触及 69,000 USDT 后，熊市以一系列市场投降事件拉开帷幕，包括 Terra Luna 生态崩溃、三箭资本破产、加密货币交易所 FTX 破产等。

  2022年11月21日，比特币价格在短短一年内跌至15,476 USDT。

• 尽管比特币价格在2023年站稳脚跟并走高，但硅谷银行的破产导致比特币价格回调了22%。

• 自 2023 年初以来，比特币价格经历了多次 15% 的回调，最近一次是比特币现货 ETF 获批后的抛售。

• 今天，比特币价格重回历史高位 69,000 USDT，随后在现货市场上五个小时内下跌 14.5%，至 59,005 USDT。

  多头收复了部分损失，目前交易价格为 65,743 USDT。

• 这种波动的交易时段在加密货币市场中很正常，我们的团队观察到其他山寨币出现了更大规模的调整，特别是那些在前几天上涨了一倍、三倍甚至四倍的币。

• 今天的回调在 59,500 美元附近的红框区域找到了支撑，如上图所示。

  这是一个强有力的支撑区域。

  只要该支撑位完好无损，比特币价格就可能继续上涨。

期权市场

• 上表显示了上周 BTC 期权的 25 δ 偏度。

• The recent Bitcoin price action has resulted in several spikes on the short-term options market (the black line). The skewness reached more than 10 on March 1, when the Bitcoin price soared to $63,500. The increase in skewness suggests that options traders were rushing to build a positive delta position, either by buying calls, selling puts, or a combination of both.

• We saw multiple downside spikes today, indicating the opposite trading action. During the capitulation, when the Bitcoin price fell to $59,000, it appeared that options traders were taking a negative delta position.

• Despite significant fluctuations in the short-tenor options last week, we noticed that the skewness in the mid-to-long-tenor options remained positive at the same level. Nonetheless, options traders remain optimistic about the bitcoin price over the next three to six months. This bullish sentiment could help the BTC move higher and reach a new all-time high in the coming months.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (2024-02-29)

  • In February, Germany's monthly CPI growth rate was 0.4%, lower than the estimated 0.5%. The annualized CPI growth rate fell from 2.9% in January to 2.5% in February, which was lower than the expected 2.6%.

  • In January, the US PCE price index increased by 0.3% month on month, up from 0.1% in December. The annualized PCE price index rose 2.4%, in line with market expectations, slowing from 2.6% in December. The US core PCE price index was also regaining momentum, rising from 0.1% in December to 0.4% in January month on month, as expected. The annualized core PCE price index fell from 2.9% in December to 2.8% in January, as expected. The re-acceleration of PCE price index growth and core PCE price index growth raises the prospect of a June rate cut by the Fed. The US dollar index rose, while the Bitcoin price fluctuated around $62,500.

• Last Friday (2024-03-01)

  • The annual CPI growth rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.6% in February, down from 2.8% in January. However, it exceeded the estimated 2.5% rate. The core CPI growth rate fell from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in February, but it remained higher than the expected 2.9%.

  • In February, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.8, lower than the economists' forecast of 49.5 and further down from January's 49.1. It indicates that the US manufacturing industry has continued to contract.

• On Tuesday (2024-03-05)

  • The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.6, below the economists' forecast of 53.0.

  • The US equity market fell due to a selloff in AI-related stocks, including Microsoft and Adobe, after AI startup Anthropic claimed that its new models, Claude 3, could outperform OpenAI's ChatGPT. The risk-off sentiment has spread to the cryptocurrency market. BTC fell $10,000, or 14.5%, after reaching a new all-time high of 69,000 USDT in the spot market.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• 本周，我们的服务台观察到 Meme 和 Metaverse 区域的大量交易需求。

• Meme 区的交易量增长了 1,182.1%，主要是由于对柴犬 ($SHIB) 的高需求推动的。

  由于强劲的购买需求，柴犬 ($SHIB) 的价格在过去 7 天内翻了一番。

  狗主题硬币的流行增加了狗狗币 ($DOGE) 和 Floki ($FLOKI) 的交易量。

  Meme ($MEME)、ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) 和 Bonk ($BONK) 的交易量也显着增加。

• 元界专区交易量近7天上涨160.7%。

  Decentraland ($MANA) 和 The Sandbox ($SAND) 是需求增加的主要来源。

• 我们的柜台发现 POW 区域的交易量增长了 126.7%。

  随着比特币触及 69,000 美元的历史新高，比特币 ($BTC) 和比特币现金 ($BCH) 的交易量大幅增加，引发了人们对 POW 区货币的浓厚兴趣。

为什么进行场外交易？

币安为客户提供多种方式进行场外交易，包括聊天沟通渠道和币安场外交易平台 (https://www.binance.com/en/otc)，用于手动报价、算法订单或通过 Binance Convert 自动报价大宗交易平台 (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) 和 Binance Convert OTC API。

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