[伯特]为加密货币交易者绘制比特币路线——2024 年我们将走向何方

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从诞生之日起，比特币就一直在展示其历史上不断重复的价格模式。

看起来它们以减半为中心

这是比特币网络每四年发生一次的事件。

随着 2024 年再次减半的临近，其他一些因素可能会影响今年的 BTC 价格。

让我们把它们分解一下。

什么是比特币减半

为了解释减半，让我们回顾一下第一个加密货币是如何工作的。

每 10 分钟，比特币网络中进行的新交易就会被组织成区块。

矿工验证区块数据并将其添加到当前的区块链交易数据库中。

为此，他们获得了奖励

目前，一个区块的奖励为 6.25 BTC。

减半将矿工奖励减半。

下一次减半预计在 2024 年 4 月。一旦发生，矿工将开始获得每个区块 3.125 BTC。

从历史上看，挖矿在接下来的一年内引发了比特币价格的飙升。

2012年减半后，比特币的价格从12美元飙升至2013年底的1000多美元。2016-2017年，比特币价格从650美元上涨至近2万美元。

2020 年减半后，比特币的价格从 8,500 美元上涨至 2021 年的历史新高 69,000 美元。

大多数分析师预计 2024 年减半后也会出现牛市。

鉴于比特币的主导地位，历史上减半后的增长阶段会激发整个加密货币市场的上升趋势。

第一种加密货币本身正在成为一种成熟的资产，并且从减半到减半的次数越来越少

但那些妥善管理资金的人仍然可能获得可观的利润。

减半和比特币稀缺

比特币的设计初衷是抗通胀

与政府发行的货币不同，其代码中的供应量仅限于 2100 万枚。

新的比特币通过矿工奖励进入流通，逐步削减比特币是降低发行速度

确保比特币稀缺性的方法。

尽管其供应有限，但投资者对第一种加密货币的需求不断增加。

Proven track record and fundamental characteristics like decentralization and censorship resistance, as well as the ability to serve as a hedge against inflation, increase the number of Bitcoin investors year by year.

Together, these factors ensure a long-term price growth for Bitcoin – and every four years, it is supported by the halving.

We’ve already witnessed some pre-halving price surge recently – Bitcoin grew by 150% in 2023.

Analysts expect market correction after halving and then a consolidation phase followed by a new bull market.

Why is everyone talking about Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETF approval might be another factor contributing to the BTC price growth this year.

A Bitcoin exchange-traded fund is the way to trade the first cryptocurrency on traditional exchanges like Nasdaq and NYSE.

This financial tool tracks the price of Bitcoin and lets investors gain exposure to BTC without the need to own or store it.

The ETF provides a regulated and familiar investment instrument for traditional investors who may find crypto wallets and exchanges uneasy to use.

On January 11, 2024, the SEC approved all 11 applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF, including major ones from Grayscale, BlackRock and Fidelity. On the fourth day of trading, the ETFs hit $11 billion in trading volume.

The historic decision by the SEC has made Bitcoin more accessible to millions of investors.

This fundamental factor has already led to a huge capital influx to Bitcoin, which is expected to result in a consequent price growth.

Fundamental factors driving Bitcoin price growth

Aside from ETFs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly adopted by institutional and retail investors.

In 2023 alone, the number of crypto users globally increased by 35% and hit 580 million – compared to 430 million a year ago, according to data by Crypto.com.

In addition to the interest from institutional investors and the ETF approval, the firm mentions Ordinals as another catalyst behind Bitcoin’s adoption growth.

This protocol opens up the possibility to host images and other types of data directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, introducing the so-called, ‘Bitcoin-based NFTs.’

In 2023, Bitcoin outperformed traditional assets – its annual returns surpassed those of stocks and gold – and showed no more correlation with the stock market than before.

This is the reason why a growing number of investors consider Bitcoin a store of value and a long-term investment.

Long-term versus short-term predictions

Bitcoin price has continued to increase over the years due to fundamental factors such as hardcoded scarcity and increasing demand.

The upcoming halving is likely to facilitate a new growth phase in 2024–2025.

然而，预测总体趋势比预测局部价格走势更容易

近几个月的实际价格动态将取决于市场状况。

这就是为什么最近比特币价格飙升至 63,700 美元令许多人感到惊讶的原因。

因此，在这些高度波动的市场条件下保持警惕绝对重要。

做出明智的投资决策，祝您的比特币持有量增加。

Yaniv Baruch 是 Playnance 的首席运营官，Playnance 是一个 B2B Web 3.0 平台，提供即插即用的白标 P2P 交易游戏，使流量所有者、影响者和企业家能够轻松获利。

他是一位资深的金融科技专业人士，自 2004 年开始在 RBC 工作，拥有 Web 3.0 领域的宝贵专业知识和金融市场的广泛技能。

特色图片：Shutterstock/Sergey Nivens

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